Market Garden: Should Frost entrench?

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Market Garden: Should Frost entrench?

Postby Joe » Sun Apr 06, 2008 9:23 pm

The first screenie shows the map from Nijmegen to Arnhem.

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Just to the Left of Arnhem can be seen the landing are of the British Airborne. Note the location of the supply sources. If they move too far away they will be out of supply.

In this scenario, the Allied player will notice that most German units have only a low points value and the victory locations have a high points value. So, the destruction of German units has much less importance than the capture of victory locations.

Looking across the map at the victory locations, Arnhem comes 7th in terms of points value but it’s enough to warrant contesting the hex.

The next screen shot is of a battalion of the British Airborne. Note that it has 4 defensive supply cans.

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The next screen shot is of Frost’s battalion. Notice it has 6 supply cans. Notice also that 2 of them are green. This tells us that he has 2 extra cans for a total of 8 supply cans. This is the only unit in the game with extra supply cans.

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On the first turn, Frost is the only allied unit that can move to Arnhem and he needs to do so immediately.

The move uses a supply can.

On turn 2, Frost will entrench using up another supply can. Then starting from turn 3, the Germans need to attack Frost each and every turn. Frost is not in supply and therefore each German attack uses up 1 of Frost’s supply cans (for a maximum of 1 per turn, no matter how many attacks).

At the end of the German turn 8, Frost’s 8 supply cans will be used up and the Allies will begin turn 9 with Frost “in the red”. And on the German turn 9 Frost will be destroyed and Arnhem re-captured.

So the Allies need to relieve Frost on turn 9 or earlier to gain maximum points for the possession of Arnhem.

However, the Allied player might decide that Frost does not entrench, thereby not using up a valuable supply can. In which case the Allies need to relieve Frost on turn 10 or earlier giving Frost a one turn breathing space.


Should Frost entrench?

1. German artillery

If Frost does not entrench, the best German artillery still needs to bowl a 6 to destroy a step.

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And artillery can make 2 attacks per turn on Arnhem. As we are talking about 9 turns that makes 18 dice rolls. The chances of bowling one 6 is very high and lucky players will bowl 2 or more.

If Frost does entrench, the best German artillery requires a pair of 6’s to destroy one step. As we are talking about only 18 artillery attacks, a pair of 6’s is not likely – thereby favouring entrenching.

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2. German ground attacks.

Meanwhile, German troops need to attack Frost to use up his supply cans.

If Frost is not entrenched:

If the Germans attack at 10-1 they need only a 5 or better to destroy a step.

If the Germans attack at 10-1, mathematically they ought to destroy a step one turn in three. By the end of turn 9 that’s 3 steps destroyed and if the artillery has destroyed a step or two then Frost is destroyed. It is likely to be destroyed at about turn 8,9 or 10.

If Frost is entrenched the Germans need to use a greater number of troops to make a 10-1 attack. This means there are fewer troops available to be used to attack the British Airborne. As the scenario closes the British Airborne will try to escape back across the river. Some of the troops have a high points value and these cannot be lost in combat before the river crossing.

Further, Frost has 3 inbuilt replacements that appear with a delay of one turn.

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Whether Frost entrenches or not it is very unlikely that Frost will be destroyed by turn 9.


Conclusion

If Frost entrenches, the Allies need to ensure Frost is relieved by the Allied turn 9. Note that the Allies don’t have to hold on to Arnhem to win. If they can reach the Rhine to stop the Germans crossing at Arnhem by the end of Allied turn 10, the Allies should still win.

Which means the other part of the battle centres on the Germans slowing the Allied advance on Arnhem.....................................


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Postby Noakesy » Mon Apr 07, 2008 9:51 pm

I seem to recall that Talos killed my poor old Frosty by around turn 6 or 7. I'm reasonably sure I would have entrenched him, but it was some time back. I have a feeling he did this to others also :cry: :roll:
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Postby Talos » Mon Apr 07, 2008 10:02 pm

When the OMG final is resolved I will give some views on this (and Market Garden in General), but there are a couple of other things to think about as well.

On turn 7 the Germans start getting the special attack bonus which means 1 step will be killed of and possibly 2 on a 5 or 6 at 10-1. In addition if Frost gets down to 2 steps then the 10th SS panthers have a 4-6 chance of getting the step on a normal attack and if a special attack then 2 steps on 4-6. This presuposes that this is the best place for the German player to use the special attack but if it is by the end of turn 9 Frost will likely be dead even if entrenched and maybe on turn 8 or earlier if the arty has been semi successful. Also it is possible to launch multiple attacks in a turn on Frost especially if un-entrenched.
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Postby Joe » Fri Apr 11, 2008 11:53 am

I look forward to you're comments after the final is complete

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Postby Joe » Mon Mar 29, 2010 10:06 am

Bump
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