The BIG decision!
Turn 4, pterrok Axis vs Robjess Allies in Wiking Whiteout
That 7-1 overrun is looking like QUITE the target! But is is a grand opportunity or a false lead? Here's the steps I went through to figure it out. (This IS more than I usually do EXCEPT for in the this game when such an opportunity arises!)
I FIRST examine the defenders in the town--there were a bunch there last turn and this turn is no exception--four of 'em! Since there are 4 units here, I really, REALLY want to surround the other stack so that he can't retreat--at 7-1 an R is guaranteed! This would mean that there would be at least a 30% chance of an extra hit on them for failing to retreat...
The defenders in the overrun stack are:
170 Tank (50%)
13
9
5
2
Recon 1 (0%)
6
3
1
The two defenders right now have a 26 Defense. (Determined by a faux attack by the unit already next to them.) This must mean that the 13 at 50% is getting rounded up to 7, to make it 13 + 7 + 6 = 26. There is also a 25% chance of two dice. The Russian has 1 shift due to arty support, -1 for an Elite unit and -4 for defending without being entrenched for -6 shifts total.
I went through the units the CA highlighted for the attack and they total to 143 factors using both my arty and of course, my single leader. If that only gets me a 7-1, would I be able to continue an overrun a second time WITHOUT the arty and leader? THIS is the $64,000 question!
There is only one unit that can get behind the stack to the NE, the rec unit. There is, however, NO unit which can make it to the hex north of the stack, EXCEPT the grenadier nearby when using extended movement. There is another grenadier that the CA has NOT highlighted and he can slide over and take the place of the one who will filling the final gap.
There are 8 steps in the town, or ARE there??? There is a single-step AT unit, but is this one that is screwed-up and acting like it has THREE-steps? I would feel most comfortable if I knew I had 10 steps in the junction at 18,4 between the two stacks to ensure a green arrow--and then we'll see if the CA has figured in this green arrow correctly--if not, a 9-1 would be bliss!
Upon reflection, the CA MUST be using the shifts since 143 / 26 = 5.5 and we could then get 8 shifts (4 from hexes, +1 leader, + 2 arty and +1 Elite) to counter the defender's -6 for a +2 to move it up to 7-1.
So say I take the 7-1; here are the actual D possibilities when you have 25% chance of two dice in clear: (Trust me on this!)
- Code: Select all
D4 2.78% ( 2.78%)
D3 8.33% ( 11.11%)
D2 34.03% ( 45.14%)
D1 41.67% ( 86.81%)
D0 13.19% (100.00%)
or a full 86.81% of the time I could expect to get at least ONE hit. This would come off the 4-step tank first, reducing him to his 9 defense step. Assuming the same rounding would hold true on the second attack we'd get 9 * .5 = 5 for a new defense of 20. Furthermore, there is a 45.14% chance of two or more hits which would mean they'd be down to 17 as the second hit would come off the rec unit.
Then factor in that they would NOT BE ABLE TO RETREAT and so would suffer a 30% chance of an extra hit for the Elite and 50% for the Regular! This would reduce the most important 'no hit on the tank' odds to just 6.6%!
So play the odds and he'll be down to 20 defense, maximum. What will our attack be? In one sense, we'd LOVE to get A2 since that would mean at least D2 but maybe even D4! Heck, even an A1 would mean D1, so we'll assume that case. The step would come off a four step unit with the lowest native attack factor, which would be EITHER the LAH rec from 9 to 7 (100%) or the WIK Wes Pz Gr from 9 to 8 (100%). Assume the one that hurts the most and we would get 7 * 100 = 7 or 14. (Oddly enough, at 9 it's worth NINETEEN, so there may still be a weird +1 here and it would be worth 15!) This is a loss of 5 from our original attck total.
That would put us at 138 / 20 and the defense would get -1 shift for his unchallenged arty. This is 6-1 -1 shifts or 5-1. An overrun! This one would be a single die only and would have a 1/6 chance of failing, but considering how he could have taken so many more hits on the initial attack, more than 5-1 should be possible on the second attack.
OOPS! Almost forgot! The rec unit attacking over the river would be halved! So instead of 4, he's 2. This means 141 / 26 = 5.4 + 2 shifts = 7-1. On the follow up, it's now 136 / 20 = 6.8 so we're still safe. Phew!
Now before I go and do that, I ponder the chances of driving him towards me with an attack by the rec circling around behind. I could herd him towards me into either 18,4 or 19,4. Of the two, the latter would be better since the newly arrived 10 Panzer Grenadier could join the second attack and it would be through a green arrow hex! But since I DON'T get a plus to the first die roll, any small initial attack would have a MUCH lesser chance of forcing him to retreat, so it's not the best tactic in this case.
One last thing before I go and do the attack--I REALLY want to, in case you couldn't tell!--is to see what I'll be exposing at the end of the turn...
I'll definitely be exposing the rec unit in the open behind enemy lines. Yet he'll be able to retreat into the village and so should escape with at least one step left if worse comes to worst. The Russian units attacked last turn and I'll have hit them, so the Russian rec unit will be red, I think, since there will be at least 3+7+7 ZOC penalties trying to get supply to him. Hopefully, though, both Russians will DIE and I'll be able to extend into their clear hex. There will be enough movement left with other units to form a line, so NOW let's do it!
Just in case I screwed up the calculations, move the close units into the junction FIRST to make sure I get the green arrow and THEN move the units around the back! Moving the first two 4 step units gets the green arrow right away, so it's all a go, go, GO!
I rolled a D1R with ONE extra step loss--and it's on the tank! Whoo hoo! Now we can continue at 8-1 as is, or add the rec unit I held back (I didn't move it from its starting hex) and make it 9-1. Hmmm, looking at it, it's all over bar the burial, so I want to minimize my losses. I also don't want the rec unit around the back to lose a step, so hold him out of the Max atttack. This reduces it to 7-1, but in essence this is BETTER since there are only 3 chances for me to take a hit vs 4 at 8-1. (There are only 3 bad rolls at 9-1, but I want to preserve movement!)
A couple more attacks and the Russians are both dead and luckily I didn't take ANY hits. (This after Rob took A2-D1 on his attack on me in the clear on turn 3!) The war gods were clearly favoring me!
I forgot to take a screen shot, but I was able to disperse after the attack and form a line AND fill the hex where the Russians had been which helped protect the rec unit.
Something that came up in Rob's turn that he asked me about also could have applied here...Say that the Russian tank went from 13 to 12 instead of 9 as it lost a step; the total defense would then be 24 if they only took one hit. 136 / 24 = 5.6 or 5-1 and then I would lose a shift to his arty for a 4-1. However, this would STILL be an overrun! You'd see a green 4-1 from the CA! Why? The odds in the pop-up box would say 5-1 and overrun since they DON'T count the arty! So I probably still would have taken this first attack 'as is' instead of trying to herd him; only if there would have been NO overrun possible on the follow-up would I have seriously considered herding him.
This is not something you would normally go through and calculate, but in WW where the tactical combat IS the game, it's not a bad thing to be able to work through the steps so you KNOW what's going to happen before you do anything!